Categories: MUMBAI UNIVERSITY IDOL NOTES

Foreign Exchange Market

In this session, we’ll be exploring the topic of the Foreign Exchange Market, which is all about how different currencies are bought and sold around the world. Understanding this market is very important because it plays a major role in international trade and economic policies.

We’ll start by learning about the meaning and nature of the foreign exchange market — what it is and how it operates. Then, we’ll look at India’s exchange rate policy since 1991, which changed a lot after the country’s major economic reforms. We’ll also understand how the exchange rate is determined — or in simple words, how the value of a currency is decided compared to another.

Towards the end, we’ll cover some important concepts like the Spot Exchange Rate, which means the current exchange rate, the Forward Exchange Rate, which is a future rate agreed upon today, and the difference between a Fixed Exchange Rate and a Flexible Exchange Rate.

By the end of this session, you’ll have a clear idea of how currency exchange works and why it matters for our economy.

So, SYBA IDOL Mumbai University students, get ready to unwrap the “Foreign Exchange Market” with customized IDOL notes just for you. Let’s jump into this exploration together

Question 1 :- Discuss the meaning and nature of foreign exchange market.?

Introduction:

The foreign exchange market, commonly known as the forex market, is an essential component of the global economy, facilitating international trade and investment by enabling the exchange of different currencies. It is a vast and decentralized market where currencies are traded, which means it operates without a central physical location. This market plays a critical role in determining exchange rates— the value of one currency in relation to another— thereby affecting all international economic activities. The foreign exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it one of the most accessible financial markets for a wide range of participants, including individuals, corporations, banks, and governments.

As economies become increasingly globalized, understanding the foreign exchange market and its operations becomes vital. The forex market allows countries to conduct international trade smoothly by facilitating the conversion of one currency into another. For instance, when a business in India imports goods from the United States, it needs dollars to make the payment. By using the foreign exchange market, the Indian business can exchange its Indian Rupees for US Dollars, thereby completing the transaction.

A – Meaning of the Foreign Exchange Market

The foreign exchange market can be defined as a platform (or arrangement) where the purchase and sale of foreign currencies take place. This market is characterized by several key features:

Global Accessibility: The forex market is operational across the world, allowing participants from different countries to trade currencies at any time. This is done through sophisticated electronic networks and communication systems.
Currency Pairs: In the forex market, currencies are traded in pairs, such as the Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or Indian Rupee/US Dollar (INR/USD). The first currency in the pair is known as the base currency, and the second currency is known as the quote currency. The exchange rate indicates how much of the quote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency.
Role of Participants: The market includes various participants such as commercial banks, corporations involved in international trade, central banks, financial institutions, and individual retail traders. These participants engage in buying and selling currencies for various purposes—ranging from facilitating trade to speculating on price movements.
Determination of Exchange Rates: Exchange rates in the forex market are primarily determined by the forces of supply and demand. Factors that influence these forces include economic indicators, interest rates, political stability, and market speculation. This interaction leads to fluctuations in currency values, which can have significant implications for international trade and investment.

B– Nature of the Foreign Exchange Market

The nature of the foreign exchange market can be elaborated on through several points:

Decentralized Structure: Unlike stock exchanges that have a centralized location, the foreign exchange market has no physical exchange. Transactions occur over-the-counter (OTC), meaning they take place directly between parties without a central exchange. This structure adds flexibility and accessibility to traders.
High Liquidity: The forex market is the most liquid financial market in the world, characterized by a high volume of trading and minimal price fluctuations. This liquidity allows participants to buy and sell currencies quickly, ensuring efficient price discovery.
Continuous Operation: The forex market operates around the clock, five days a week, which accommodates trading in different time zones across the globe. This non-stop nature enables participants to react promptly to market news and events that can affect currency values.
Variety of Trading Instruments: Participants in the forex market can engage in various trading strategies and techniques. They can trade spot transactions, futures, options, and swaps, each catering to different trading needs and risk appetites.
Impact on Economies: The foreign exchange market is critical for the functioning of modern economies. It influences trade balances, inflation rates, and interest rates. For instance, a depreciating currency can make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, impacting overall economic conditions.

Conclusion:

The foreign exchange market serves as a crucial mechanism for facilitating international trade and investment by allowing the exchange of currencies. Its global accessibility, high liquidity, and continuous operation make it a vital element of the financial ecosystem. Understanding the meaning and nature of the foreign exchange market provides insight into the dynamics of global commerce and the impact of currency fluctuations on economies. As it continues to evolve, staying informed about its functioning and trends is essential for anyone involved in international finance or trade.

Question 2 :- Describe India‘s exchange rate policy since 1991

Introduction:

Since 1991, India has seen significant changes in its exchange rate policy, which governs how the Indian Rupee (INR) is valued against other currencies. These changes were largely driven by economic reforms aimed at liberalizing the Indian economy and making it more integrated with the global market. Before 1991, India operated under a fixed exchange rate system, where the value of the Rupee was pegged to a basket of currencies. However, with the economic crisis of 1991, India had to reassess its monetary policies to improve its economic stability and restore growth. This led to the introduction of a more flexible exchange rate regime, which has evolved over the years.

Understanding India’s exchange rate policy is crucial because it reflects the country’s approach to managing its monetary conditions, influencing trade, investment, and overall economic development. The monetary authorities, primarily the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), have carried out several key reforms to transition from a controlled economy to a market-oriented approach while ensuring that the exchange rate remains stable and conducive to economic growth.

Key Features of India’s Exchange Rate Policy Since 1991:

Liberalization of Exchange Rate Policy:

In 1991, India began moving away from the fixed exchange rate system. The country faced a balance of payments crisis and the need for foreign exchange prompted the government to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime.
The Indian Rupee was allowed to float, which means its value is determined by market forces of supply and demand rather than being fixed by the government.

Devaluation of the Rupee:

In July 1991, the Indian government devalued the Rupee by approximately 18-20% against major currencies. This step was vital in making Indian exports more competitive and aimed to enhance the foreign exchange inflow.
The devaluation was executed in two phases, on July 1 and July 3, marking a significant change in the valuation of the Rupee.

Introduction of the Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System (LERMS):

In March 1992, the LERMS was introduced, creating a dual exchange rate system. Under this system, 40% of foreign exchange earnings had to be surrendered at the official rate, while the remaining 60% could be sold at a market-determined rate.
This system was designed to encourage export competitiveness while ensuring essential imports could still be financed at a stable rate.

Fully Convertible Rupee on Trade Account:

By the budget for 1993-94, the Government of India moved to make the Rupee fully convertible on the trade account. This means that for international trade transactions, individuals and businesses could freely exchange Indian Rupees for foreign currencies without restrictions.
Full convertibility on the current account was achieved in August 1994, allowing for easier international transactions and investments.

Market Determined Exchange Rate:

Over the years, India has progressively shifted to a system where the exchange rate is primarily determined by market forces. This shift reflects a broader trend towards globalization and integration into the global economy.
The RBI intervenes in the forex market on occasion to stabilize currency fluctuations and manage volatility, but the overall trend is towards allowing the markets to dictate the exchange rate.

Focus on Managing Currency Volatility:

The RBI has adopted various measures to manage exchange rate volatility, which can affect trade and investment. This includes maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves as a buffer against speculative attacks on the Rupee.
The RBI also uses tools like open market operations and monetary policy adjustments to influence exchange rates indirectly.

Addressing External Payment Position:

The primary objective of adjusting the exchange rate post-liberalization has been to strengthen India’s external payment position. This involves encouraging exports, improving the trade balance, and making the economy less vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.
Steps were taken to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment, fostering an environment for sustained economic growth.

Resilience of the Rupee:

As part of the evolving exchange rate policy, measures have been put in place to ensure the resilience of the Rupee against global economic changes. The focus has been on achieving stability while enabling a responsive adjustment to market conditions.
India’s exchange rate policy, since 1991, aims for a balance between stability and flexibility to support economic growth.

Conclusion:

India’s exchange rate policy since 1991 has undergone a transformative journey, moving from a fixed regime to a more flexible and market-oriented approach. This shift has allowed India to integrate more seamlessly with the global economy, enhance competitiveness, and manage its external payments effectively. The policies adopted have been essential in navigating challenges and ensuring that the Indian economy can adapt to global trends, with the RBI playing a crucial role in maintaining stability and confidence in the currency. As India continues to evolve, its exchange rate policy will remain significant in shaping its economic landscape and fostering sustainable growth.

Question 3 :- Explain determination of exchange rate

Introduction:

The exchange rate is a crucial aspect of the global economy, representing the value at which one currency can be exchanged for another. It plays a significant role in international trade, investment, and economic policy. Understanding how exchange rates are determined is fundamental for economists, businesses, and governments since fluctuations can impact everything from import costs to the competitiveness of exports. The determination of exchange rates involves a complex interaction of various factors, including supply and demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market, interest rates, inflation, and economic stability. In this answer, we will explore the different mechanisms and models that lead to the establishment of the exchange rate between currencies, focusing on the forces of demand and supply, and other critical elements that influence exchange rate fluctuations.

Key Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Determination:

Supply and Demand in the Foreign Exchange Market:

The fundamental principle behind exchange rate determination is the balance between supply and demand for different currencies.
When more people or businesses want to buy a particular currency, its value strengthens against other currencies due to increased demand.
Conversely, if there is less interest in acquiring a currency, its value declines as the supply outweighs the demand.

Demand for Foreign Exchange:

The demand for a currency can be influenced by several factors:
Imports: When a country imports goods and services, it needs foreign currency to pay for them, increasing the demand for that currency.
Investment: Investors seeking opportunities in other countries will need to purchase foreign currencies, which also generates demand.
Tourism and Travel: Increased tourism to a country raises the demand for that country’s currency as foreign tourists need local currency for their expenses.

Supply of Foreign Exchange:

The supply of foreign currency also affects the exchange rate:
Exports: When a country exports goods, foreign buyers pay in the exporting country’s currency, increasing its supply in the foreign exchange market.
Foreign Investments: When foreigners invest in a country, the supply of that country’s currency increases in exchange for investments.
Tourist Spending: The influx of tourists spending money in the local economy increases the supply of foreign currency as they exchange it for local currency.

Interest Rates:

Countries with higher interest rates tend to attract more foreign investment as investors seek higher returns, leading to an increase in the demand for that currency.
Conversely, lower interest rates may discourage investment and reduce demand for the currency, resulting in depreciation.

Inflation Rates:

A country with a lower inflation rate than its trading partners will see an appreciation in the value of its currency. This is because lower inflation increases a country’s purchasing power relative to other currencies.
Conversely, higher inflation rates typically lead to currency depreciation as purchasing power declines.

Economic Stability and Growth Prospects:

The overall economic environment, including political stability and economic performance, affects exchange rates.
Countries with stable and growing economies are more attractive to foreign investors, increasing demand for their currency.
In contrast, political or economic turmoil can result in currency depreciation due to a lack of confidence from investors.

Government and Central Bank Interventions:

Governments and central banks may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize or alter the value of their currency.
For instance, a central bank might sell its own currency to lower its value to boost exports, or it might buy its own currency to support its value during times of economic uncertainty.

Market Speculation:

Speculators in the foreign exchange market can also influence exchange rates. When traders anticipate that a currency will strengthen, they will buy that currency in large amounts, driving up its price.
Similarly, if speculation suggests that a currency will depreciate, traders may sell off that currency, further decreasing its value.

Exchange Rate Models:

Various models help explain exchange rate determination, such as the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate Parity theories.
Purchasing Power Parity asserts that currencies should adjust to equalize the purchasing power of identical goods in different countries.
Interest Rate Parity indicates that the difference in interest rates between two countries should be equal to the expected change in exchange rates over the same period.

Conclusion:

The determination of exchange rates is influenced by a complex interplay of demand and supply dynamics, interest rates, inflation, economic stability, and government interventions. These factors create a continually shifting landscape, where exchange rates fluctuate based on the ongoing changes in economic conditions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Understanding how these elements affect exchange rates is essential for anyone involved in international finance or trade, as even slight fluctuations can have significant consequences for businesses and economies. By comprehending the mechanisms behind exchange rate determination, individuals, businesses, and policymakers can make more informed decisions regarding international transactions and economic strategies.

Question 4 :- Spot Exchange Rate

Introduction:

Key Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Determination:

Supply and Demand in the Foreign Exchange Market:

The fundamental principle behind exchange rate determination is the balance between supply and demand for different currencies.
When more people or businesses want to buy a particular currency, its value strengthens against other currencies due to increased demand.
Conversely, if there is less interest in acquiring a currency, its value declines as the supply outweighs the demand.

Demand for Foreign Exchange:

The demand for a currency can be influenced by several factors:
Imports: When a country imports goods and services, it needs foreign currency to pay for them, increasing the demand for that currency.
Investment: Investors seeking opportunities in other countries will need to purchase foreign currencies, which also generates demand.
Tourism and Travel: Increased tourism to a country raises the demand for that country’s currency as foreign tourists need local currency for their expenses.

Supply of Foreign Exchange:

The supply of foreign currency also affects the exchange rate:
Exports: When a country exports goods, foreign buyers pay in the exporting country’s currency, increasing its supply in the foreign exchange market.
Foreign Investments: When foreigners invest in a country, the supply of that country’s currency increases in exchange for investments.
Tourist Spending: The influx of tourists spending money in the local economy increases the supply of foreign currency as they exchange it for local currency.

Interest Rates:

Countries with higher interest rates tend to attract more foreign investment as investors seek higher returns, leading to an increase in the demand for that currency.
Conversely, lower interest rates may discourage investment and reduce demand for the currency, resulting in depreciation.

Inflation Rates:

A country with a lower inflation rate than its trading partners will see an appreciation in the value of its currency. This is because lower inflation increases a country’s purchasing power relative to other currencies.
Conversely, higher inflation rates typically lead to currency depreciation as purchasing power declines.

Economic Stability and Growth Prospects:

The overall economic environment, including political stability and economic performance, affects exchange rates.
Countries with stable and growing economies are more attractive to foreign investors, increasing demand for their currency.
In contrast, political or economic turmoil can result in currency depreciation due to a lack of confidence from investors.

Government and Central Bank Interventions:

Governments and central banks may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize or alter the value of their currency.
For instance, a central bank might sell its own currency to lower its value to boost exports, or it might buy its own currency to support its value during times of economic uncertainty.

Market Speculation:

Speculators in the foreign exchange market can also influence exchange rates. When traders anticipate that a currency will strengthen, they will buy that currency in large amounts, driving up its price.
Similarly, if speculation suggests that a currency will depreciate, traders may sell off that currency, further decreasing its value.

Exchange Rate Models:

Various models help explain exchange rate determination, such as the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate Parity theories.
Purchasing Power Parity asserts that currencies should adjust to equalize the purchasing power of identical goods in different countries.
Interest Rate Parity indicates that the difference in interest rates between two countries should be equal to the expected change in exchange rates over the same period.